Yellow card football betting

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Yellow card football betting

I’ve been betting on yellow cards for a couple of seasons already. As I’m gaining more experience in betting on yellow cards, I’m focusing less and less on other betting types. I believe yellow card betting to be a heavily underestimated betting type. Starting from the next season, I’m going to focus on yellow card betting only.

There is one thing I’d like to make clear right away. Yellow card football betting is not a surefire strategy. I’m just sharing my experience gained over several years of yellow card betting.

How to bet on yellow cards and win? Below I’ll focus on the main factors you need to consider to succeed in yellow card betting.


When I just started, I used to focus on competing teams. But gradually I came to understanding that teams are not that important. The referee is the factor that really matters. If the referee likes to show cards, he will always find a fault with a most insignificant detail. This is why the first thing you need to do is to analyze the stats on the referee appointed for the upcoming match. Finding the statistics is not hard.

There is an important thing I’d like to draw your attention to, though. Suppose, you’re predicting that the total number of yellow cards during the game will be over 3.5. If the referee shows 5 yellow cards per match on the average, this does not mean anything. He may usually give 2-3 cards, but during one match he may have shown as many as 12. This is how the stats are distorted. You need to calculate how often your selected total has taken place. If you’re betting on total over 3.5, you need to find out how often the referee has shown more than 3.5 yellow cards. If the number is more than 50% and the odds are about 2.00, you should go for it.


Yellow cards are given to individual players and not teams. This is why you need to analyze style of playing of certain footballers rather than the team as a whole. For better results, you need to actually watch games.

Each football league features 10-20 so-called “terminators” that play in a very aggressive style and pick up plenty of cards. If a team has such a player, you should consider betting on total Over. If there is no such player or he is disqualified, then betting on total Under is probably the best.

Another observation from personal experience: plenty of Afro-American and Balkan players on the field is a good reason to bet on total Over. The Afro-Americans have the habit of getting physical, while the Balkans are notorious for unsporting behavior.

Yellow card football betting


There is a myth saying that players from outsider teams pick up more cards than players from top football clubs. Forget it. This is not true at all. Make sure yourself by taking a look at any championship stats.

Over years of betting on yellow cards, I haven’t detected any correlation between the team’s performance and the number of yellow cards. There is probably no such thing at all. This is why I take no interest in team stats.

Previous matches

This is the key element of my strategy. I always find out how many yellow cards referees showed over the last 2-3 matches. If the number is more than the average, you should bet on total Under. Otherwise, bet on total Over.

It’s sure to say that referees have something like a “yellow card limit.” For instance, a certain referee usually shows 3-4 yellow cards per match. They’re trying to stick to this limit to maintain their reputation. If the referee showed a bunch of cards during the last couple of matches, they’ll be acting more careful during the next games.

This may all come down to dispersion. Anyway, I always check the stats on the last matches. This helps me a lot. For example, if in two consecutive games the referee showed more yellow cards than he usually does, be sure to bet on total Under – on the condition that other factors are giving you the green light.

Derby matches

I never use derby matches and other similar football competitions to bet on yellow cards. The reason is simple: total Over bets always have too low odds, while betting on total Under is too risky. I prefer to avoid such matches.

Good bookmaker

Many betting sites simply offer lousy odds on yellow card betting. You may be a betting genius, but if the odds on opposite totals are at 1.80, you’ll hardly make any profits. So make sure your selected bookmaker offers good odds on yellow card bets.

Betting frequency

Betting 50% of your bankroll on one match is unhealthy, especially if it’s yellow card betting that we’re talking about. Any bettor realizes that anything can happen during the game. Just imagine that players may start a fight, and your fat bet on total Under will inevitably lose.

Watch how many bets you’re placing. On a favorable football weekend, I place 10-20 bets. This makes 400-600 bets per season. Such betting frequency secures good profits long term. Placing just 1-2 bets per week is blindly counting on luck rather than relying on sound analysis. So my yellow card betting strategy incorporates a certain betting frequency.

There is absolutely nothing difficult about yellow card betting. It does not take any super smart analysis to make accurate betting predictions. I personally think that this betting type is much easier than outcome betting and total betting. In this article I’ve examined the key guidelines on how to bet on yellow cards. I hope you found those helpful. Good luck with your betting!